Thought the warm weather was going to help? Think again. Anyone want to predict what will happen when people are indoors more, say, in the fall or winter?

Obviously some of that gets to the nature of exponential growth. An R of 1.3 isn't *that* different than an R of 1.1, but played out over a few weeks, it makes a lot of difference. Still, a more complete story probably includes premature re-openings coupled with other stuff.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 26, 2020